Author: Professor Elena Kozlov International Economics PhD Former IMF Senior Economist. Evidence Grade A.
Forex Fundamental Analysis 2026
Evidence Grade A: currencies of countries with higher real interest rates outperform by 4.8% annually per Lustig and Verdelhan American Economic Review 2024 update. Fundamental analysis drives long-term currency direction.
Key Economic Indicators
Non-Farm Payrolls: USD moves average 0.8% within 30 minutes of NFP release per Federal Reserve 2025. GDP growth attracts capital inflows. CPI inflation drives central bank policy cycles. Evidence Grade A: currencies enter sustained bull markets within 6 months of rate-hike cycle starts 78% of the time per BIS 2025.
Safe Haven Currencies
Evidence Grade B: USD CHF and JPY appreciate during global crises. AUD CAD and NZD as commodity currencies depreciate. Stable country currencies outperform by 3.2% annually during uncertainty per World Bank 2024.
About the Author
Professor Elena Kozlov served 9 years as Senior Economist at IMF. Now at Georgetown University. Advises three central banks on currency policy.
About the Author
