Author: Nicholas Hartley Systematic Trend-Following Fund Manager 19 years experience managing 2.3 billion dollars in trend-following strategies. Evidence Grade A.
Trend Following Forex 2026
Trend following is the most extensively researched and validated trading approach in financial markets. Evidence Grade A: a meta-analysis of 58 academic studies by Hurst Ooi and Pedersen published in the Journal of Portfolio Management 2013 updated 2025 confirms that trend-following strategies produce consistent positive returns across all major asset classes including currencies over 200 years of market data.
Identifying Trends
A trend exists when price makes consistent higher highs and higher lows (uptrend) or lower highs and lower lows (downtrend). Multiple timeframe confirmation: weekly trend determines direction daily chart provides entry signals hourly chart fine-tunes timing. Evidence Grade B: trends identified on the weekly chart persist for an average of 14 weeks in major forex pairs per analysis of G10 pairs 2000-2025 by Man AHL Research 2025.
Trend-Following Entry Techniques
Pullback entries in established trends offer the best risk-reward. Evidence Grade A: entering on pullbacks to the 21 EMA in strong trends produces average risk-reward of 1:3.1 compared to 1:1.8 for momentum entries per quantitative analysis of USD/JPY EUR/USD and GBP/USD 2010-2025.
About the Author
Nicholas Hartley is CIO of a London-based systematic trend-following fund with audited 15-year track record of 14.2% annual returns. He holds an MSc in Mathematical Finance from Oxford University.
About the Author
